Flash estimate - December 2008, Euro area inflation estimated at 1.6%

Submitted by Anonymous on Mon, 06/01/2009 - 05:00

STAT/09/1
6 January 2009

Flash estimate – December 2008
Euro area inflation estimated at 1.6%

Euro area¹ annual inflation² is expected to be 1.6% in December 2008 according to a flash estimate issued by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities. It was 2.1% in November³.

Computation of flash estimates

Euro area inflation is measured by the Monetary Union Index of Consumer Prices (MUICP). To compute the MUICP flash estimates, Eurostat uses early price information relating to the reference month from Member States for which data are available⁴ as well as early information about energy prices.

The flash estimation procedure for the MUICP combines historical information with partial information on price developments in the most recent months to give a total index for the euro area. No detailed breakdown is available. Experience has shown the procedure to be reliable (16 times exactly anticipating the inflation rate and 8 times differing by 0.1 over the last two years). Further information can be found in Eurostat News Release 113/2001 of
5 November 2001.

Future provisional publication dates

Index for	MUICP flash estimates	News release on euro area, EU and Member States
December 2008	-	15 January 2009
January 2009	30 January 2009	27 February 2009
February 2009	2 March 2009	16 March 2009

The Member States participating in the euro area as at 31 December 2008 were Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia and Finland. Slovakia is a member of the euro area from 1 January 2009, and will be included in the calculation of the Flash Estimate for January 2009.
Annual inflation is the price change between the current month and the same month of the previous year.
See News Release 181/2008 of 17 December 2008.
The MUICP flash estimate usually includes early price information representing approximately 95% of the euro area total consumption expenditure weight (see News Release 53/2006 of 28 April 2006).